Turns out it's an evolution of an old (1840s) showmans pitch, "you pays your money, you takes your choice" per The Quote Verifier: Who Said What, Where, and When By Ralph Keyes. The slow shift of "choice" to "chance(s)" is intriguing.
* have a cold
* brother's family about to head to Tampa
* taking time off work, but not feeling as vital as i need to be to do the yard work i wanted
* mourning over Duke power's contractors' collateral damage to a 6" diameter redbud and a 4" diameter cherry tree (and irritated someone took the cherry tree wood). And by collateral damage, intentional cutting down of those trees.